Makers, don’t try to reverse-engineer success

I often get questions like “How did you get your first customers for WIP? How did you grow BetaList’s traffic?” Makers are looking to reverse-engineer success, and I see it everywhere. But I don’t think it works that way, and the answers to those questions are mostly useless.

I have built dozens of different products over the last couple of years. The vast majority failed. Surely if I already knew the answers to those questions, but still failed over and over again, those answers aren’t that useful. So what’s a better question to ask?

The real question — the thing you actually want to know — is this: what makes WIP, BetaList, and Startup Jobs succeed where my countless other attempts failed? What separates a failed product from a successful one?

99.9% of the questions I receive are about the products that did well. In a way that makes sense, because we quickly forget the ones that didn’t. This is known as survivorship bias — focusing on what survived while ignoring what made it survive in the first place.

Honestly, I don’t know the answer. I wish I did. It’s like Steve Jobs said: “I’ll know it when I see it.” The same is true when we make products. We don’t know upfront what will work. But once we see an inkling of a product that does have potential, it’s not that hard to spot.

So keep shipping. Assume your current product will fail and that you need to try a bunch more before you find the metaphorical spaghetti that sticks to the wall.

Some contrasts I’ve come to recognize

The wrong idea requires you to push and push until you’re tired and can’t take it anymore. The right idea pulls you forwards.

The wrong product will have you focused on the technology, fine-tuning the design, tweaking the copy. The right product will give you the confidence to ship something embarrassing, because you know that despite all its shortcomings it’s useful.

The wrong product will have you begging people for feedback. You’ll cling to any comment remotely positive (“Wouldn’t use, but nice idea!”). The right product will attract people wanting to use it. People will give feedback without you asking for it.

Practical advice

Keep your initial products small. If it takes 10 tries to find something that works, you can’t afford to spend more than a month on any one idea.

Persistence is not about sticking with what doesn’t work. Persistence is continuously experimenting until you find something that does.

Happy shipping.

— Inspired by conversations in WIP.